St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

COL: 57.6%

STL: 42.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.68

STL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 50%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	28	26	2	92.9%	2.26	0	0.26
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	27	4	87.1%	3.21	1	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs STL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	19	0	0.94
1	STL	12	0	0.48
2	COL	18	0	1.24
2	STL	10	0	0.84
3	COL	7	1	1.02
3	STL	15	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9