Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 42.9%

BOS: 57.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.98

BOS: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

FLA

A. Lyon

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	A. Lyon	41	38	3	92.7%	4.61	1	1.61
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	37	33	4	89.2%	3.12	0	-0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs BOS: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	BOS
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	0	0.98
1	BOS	22	0	1.39
2	FLA	15	0	0.63
2	BOS	21	1	2.48
3	FLA	25	0	1.48
3	BOS	10	0	0.74
4	FLA	1	0	0.04
4	BOS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4