Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

NYI: 64.3%

VGK: 35.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.34

VGK: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	46	45	1	97.8%	3.11	1	2.11
VGK	L. Thompson	38	36	2	94.7%	2.72	1	0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	0	0.62
1	VGK	9	0	0.41
2	NYI	21	1	1.66
2	VGK	21	0	1.21
3	NYI	6	0	0.24
3	VGK	21	1	1.18
4	NYI	2	0	0.19
4	VGK	4	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8