Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

Win Probability

MIN: 52.2%

BUF: 47.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.04

BUF: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	33	30	3	90.9%	2.97	1	-0.03
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	38	33	5	86.8%	5.97	4	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-17	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	1	1.54
1	BUF	10	0	0.63
2	MIN	13	0	0.75
2	BUF	14	0	0.49
3	MIN	13	0	0.90
3	BUF	12	0	0.77
4	MIN	3	0	0.23
4	BUF	3	0	0.08
5	MIN	3	3	2.55
5	BUF	2	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2