Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-02-01 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.3%

BOS: 45.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

BOS: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

I. Samsonov

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	24	5	82.8%	2.59	1	-2.41
BOS	L. Ullmark	35	33	2	94.3%	3.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TOR at home vs BOS: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	1	1.38
1	BOS	17	1	1.18
2	TOR	12	0	0.72
2	BOS	13	0	0.85
3	TOR	19	0	1.28
3	BOS	9	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1