Calgary Flames at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-02-06 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 37.4%

CGY: 62.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.78

CGY: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

J. Halak

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	J. Halak	32	28	4	87.5%	2.59	2	-1.41
CGY	J. Markstrom	33	28	5	84.8%	3.71	2	-1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYR at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	1.04
1	CGY	15	2	1.13
2	NYR	16	0	1.14
2	CGY	15	0	0.63
3	NYR	13	1	0.87
3	CGY	15	0	0.79
4	NYR	5	1	0.65
4	CGY	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4