Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-02-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 47.5%

COL: 52.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.34

COL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

PIT

C. DeSmith

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	42	41	1	97.6%	4.11	0	3.11
COL	P. Francouz	38	36	2	94.7%	3.69	4	1.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	1	0.77
1	COL	18	0	1.07
2	PIT	13	1	1.35
2	COL	19	0	1.70
3	PIT	26	0	0.87
3	COL	12	0	0.84
4	PIT	4	2	0.71
4	COL	7	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1