San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-02-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.0%

SJS: 44.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.86

SJS: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

TBL

B. Elliott

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	22	18	4	81.8%	2.43	0	-1.57
SJS	K. Kahkonen	37	34	3	91.9%	4.06	1	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs SJS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	1.59
1	SJS	9	0	0.52
2	TBL	13	0	1.08
2	SJS	10	0	0.89
3	TBL	22	1	1.40
3	SJS	12	0	0.84
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	SJS	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2