Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-02-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

TBL: 51.5%

COL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.10

COL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	30	0	100.0%	3.68	3	3.68
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	32	27	5	84.4%	4.13	3	-0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	2	1.80
1	COL	14	0	0.86
2	TBL	14	1	1.21
2	COL	20	3	2.23
3	TBL	13	0	1.11
3	COL	9	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2