Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-02-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.3%

CGY: 53.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.96

CGY: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	36	35	1	97.2%	2.30	0	1.30
CGY	Dan Vladar	17	15	2	88.2%	2.15	0	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • DET at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DET	8	0.65
1	CGY	15	0.52
2	DET	15	1.15
2	CGY	14	0.51
3	DET	5	0.35
3	CGY	26	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0