Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-02-10 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

ANA: 40.9%

PIT: 59.1%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.31

PIT: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 53%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	59	53	6	89.8%	5.24	3	-0.76
PIT	C. DeSmith	31	28	3	90.3%	2.71	1	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • ANA at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	PIT 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	PIT
2025-10-14	ANA 4 - 3 PIT	ANA	ANA
2025-01-23	ANA 5 - 1 PIT	ANA	PIT
2024-10-31	PIT 2 - 1 ANA	PIT	PIT
2023-11-07	ANA 0 - 2 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	9	1	0.82
1	PIT	27	1	1.75
2	ANA	12	0	0.80
2	PIT	24	1	1.22
3	ANA	15	0	1.10
3	PIT	24	1	2.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3