Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 7 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 53.1%

CGY: 46.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.19

CGY: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	40	33	7	82.5%	3.85	1	-3.15
CGY	J. Markstrom	23	21	2	91.3%	2.94	3	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	5	0	0.54
1	CGY	16	1	1.05
2	BUF	10	0	0.69
2	CGY	26	0	1.76
3	BUF	16	3	1.72
3	CGY	13	0	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 7 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7