New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 49.4%

NYI: 50.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.01

NYI: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	27	3	90.0%	2.09	0	-0.91
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	31	27	4	87.1%	3.15	1	-0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs NYI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	NYI
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	18	1	1.40
1	NYI	11	0	0.57
2	MTL	7	0	0.39
2	NYI	10	0	0.58
3	MTL	14	0	1.01
3	NYI	10	0	0.28
4	MTL	3	0	0.35
4	NYI	9	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4