Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

FLA: 45.3%

COL: 54.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.06

COL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	50	45	5	90.0%	4.74	2	-0.26
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	45	42	3	93.3%	4.02	2	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • FLA at home vs COL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	FLA 2 - 1 COL	FLA	FLA
2025-12-11	COL 6 - 2 FLA	COL	COL
2025-01-06	COL 3 - 1 FLA	COL	FLA
2024-11-23	FLA 4 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-10	FLA 4 - 0 COL	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	12	0	0.49
1	COL	22	0	1.64
2	FLA	22	1	2.14
2	COL	19	0	1.68
3	FLA	20	1	1.39
3	COL	15	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2