Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 70.7%

CBJ: 29.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.59

CBJ: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	40	36	4	90.0%	3.08	3	-0.92
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	26	3	89.7%	2.86	0	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	1.07
1	CBJ	9	1	0.39
2	TOR	16	0	1.20
2	CBJ	24	2	1.62
3	TOR	10	0	0.58
3	CBJ	20	0	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5