Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-02-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 44.3%

EDM: 55.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.67

EDM: 3.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

MTL

J. Allen

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	31	29	2	93.5%	3.56	4	1.56
EDM	Stuart Skinner	30	24	6	80.0%	1.98	1	-4.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs EDM: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	0.94
1	EDM	12	1	1.02
2	MTL	14	0	0.62
2	EDM	17	2	1.77
3	MTL	4	1	0.42
3	EDM	11	1	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.7