Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-02-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

MTL: 57.9%

CHI: 42.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.97

CHI: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

CHI

J. Stauber

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	22	22	0	100.0%	1.45	0	1.45
CHI	J. Stauber	31	27	4	87.1%	2.94	1	-1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	0	0.26
1	CHI	10	0	0.73
2	MTL	16	0	1.06
2	CHI	11	0	0.43
3	MTL	16	1	1.62
3	CHI	11	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9