Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-02-14 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

Win Probability

COL: 48.8%

TBL: 51.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.03

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	37	33	4	89.2%	4.38	1	0.38
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	48	45	3	93.8%	3.68	3	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • COL at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	1	1.22
1	TBL	21	0	0.95
2	COL	21	1	1.45
2	TBL	14	0	1.17
3	COL	12	0	0.66
3	TBL	17	0	1.33
4	COL	2	1	0.26
4	TBL	3	0	0.05
5	COL	2	0	0.10
5	TBL	3	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1