Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-02-15 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 61.2%

COL: 38.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.59

COL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	19	16	3	84.2%	2.25	1	-0.75
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	43	41	2	95.3%	3.67	2	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	24	2	1.45
1	COL	7	0	0.52
2	MIN	18	0	0.64
2	COL	6	0	0.28
3	MIN	21	0	1.58
3	COL	12	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9