Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-02-16 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 53.8%

FLA: 46.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.29

FLA: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

WSH

D. Kuemper

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	36	30	6	83.3%	4.33	5	-1.67
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	29	3	90.6%	2.66	2	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	1	0.82
1	FLA	14	0	0.65
2	WSH	17	0	0.80
2	FLA	27	1	1.61
3	WSH	16	1	1.04
3	FLA	8	4	2.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1