Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-02-17 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (SO)

Win Probability

MIN: 61.5%

DAL: 38.5%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.28

DAL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	34	32	2	94.1%	3.90	1	1.90
DAL	Jake Oettinger	36	33	3	91.7%	4.50	3	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • MIN at home vs DAL: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	10	0	0.26
1	DAL	10	0	0.65
2	MIN	21	1	1.55
2	DAL	18	0	0.82
3	MIN	7	0	0.41
3	DAL	13	0	0.84
4	MIN	4	0	0.33
4	DAL	5	0	0.46
5	MIN	4	2	1.96
5	DAL	4	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9