New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-02-17 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 New York Rangers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 61.4%

NYR: 38.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.30

NYR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	42	36	6	85.7%	5.86	3	-0.14
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	34	29	5	85.3%	5.27	2	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-30	EDM 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	EDM
2025-10-14	NYR 0 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-16	NYR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-11-23	EDM 6 - 2 NYR	EDM	EDM
2023-12-22	NYR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	1	1.92
1	NYR	16	1	1.06
2	EDM	10	0	1.02
2	NYR	15	0	1.06
3	EDM	7	0	0.73
3	NYR	17	0	1.24
4	EDM	7	0	0.59
4	NYR	4	0	0.44
5	EDM	5	1	1.01
5	NYR	6	2	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0