Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-02-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 55.4%

CBJ: 44.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.86

CBJ: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

S. Wedgewood

CBJ

J. Korpisalo

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	S. Wedgewood	37	33	4	89.2%	3.53	2	-0.47
CBJ	J. Korpisalo	29	28	1	96.6%	2.67	2	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DAL at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	23	2	1.11
1	CBJ	20	0	0.85
2	DAL	11	0	0.88
2	CBJ	18	0	0.46
3	DAL	13	0	0.68
3	CBJ	18	2	2.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9