Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-02-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

SJS: 48.5%

BUF: 51.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.90

BUF: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	31	27	4	87.1%	3.48	2	-0.52
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	35	33	2	94.3%	3.48	2	1.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs BUF: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	1	1.55
1	BUF	8	0	0.53
2	SJS	20	1	1.36
2	BUF	9	0	0.66
3	SJS	12	0	0.56
3	BUF	24	2	2.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8