Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-02-18 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 48.7%

TBL: 51.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.93

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	24	20	4	83.3%	2.76	2	-1.24
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	21	5	80.8%	2.63	2	-2.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	0	1.17
1	TBL	17	1	0.97
2	VGK	13	0	0.57
2	TBL	19	0	1.02
3	VGK	9	2	0.89
3	TBL	10	1	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1