Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-02-19 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 37.1%

TOR: 62.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.65

TOR: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

CHI

J. Stauber

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	J. Stauber	35	32	3	91.4%	3.73	1	0.73
TOR	I. Samsonov	28	23	5	82.1%	3.65	2	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CHI at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.58
1	TOR	12	1	1.36
2	CHI	8	1	1.37
2	TOR	15	0	0.79
3	CHI	15	1	1.70
3	TOR	21	0	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4