Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-02-20 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 58.6%

WPG: 41.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.32

WPG: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	21	17	4	81.0%	2.42	2	-1.58
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	51	50	1	98.0%	5.05	1	4.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs WPG: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYR 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	NYR
2026-03-12	WPG 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	WPG
2025-03-11	WPG 2 - 1 NYR	WPG	WPG
2024-11-12	NYR 3 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-19	NYR 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	25	1	1.94
1	WPG	12	2	1.33
2	NYR	16	0	1.29
2	WPG	6	0	0.59
3	NYR	23	0	1.82
3	WPG	9	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0