Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-02-21 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 40.4%

VGK: 59.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.78

VGK: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 48%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	37	35	2	94.6%	2.75	2	0.75
VGK	L. Brossoit	42	39	3	92.9%	4.67	1	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • CHI at home vs VGK: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	VGK 5 - 2 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	14	0	1.18
1	VGK	12	2	0.82
2	CHI	15	0	0.99
2	VGK	20	0	0.91
3	CHI	17	0	0.90
3	VGK	8	0	0.56
4	CHI	5	0	0.51
4	VGK	4	0	0.28
5	CHI	3	1	1.09
5	VGK	3	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1