Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-02-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

NYI: 61.5%

WPG: 38.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.40

WPG: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	25	1	96.2%	3.00	1	2.00
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	20	2	90.9%	2.38	1	0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYI at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.94
1	WPG	11	0	0.70
2	NYI	5	0	0.28
2	WPG	19	0	1.47
3	NYI	10	1	1.15
3	WPG	11	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7