Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-02-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 6 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.1%

BUF: 47.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

BUF: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	17	6	73.9%	2.54	0	-3.46
BUF	E. Comrie	41	36	5	87.8%	5.53	3	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs BUF: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	1.08
1	BUF	11	0	0.73
2	TBL	16	0	1.03
2	BUF	15	0	0.87
3	TBL	25	3	2.79
3	BUF	9	0	0.79
4	TBL	5	0	0.63
4	BUF	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1