Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

Win Probability

STL: 45.7%

PIT: 54.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.09

PIT: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	48	45	3	93.8%	4.91	2	1.91
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	25	2	92.6%	2.47	1	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • STL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	0	0.70
1	PIT	29	1	1.82
2	STL	11	0	0.89
2	PIT	18	1	1.36
3	STL	14	1	0.76
3	PIT	21	0	1.62
4	STL	1	0	0.11
4	PIT	2	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1