Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 46.1%

CGY: 53.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.99

CGY: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	29	28	1	96.6%	2.14	0	1.14
CGY	J. Markstrom	22	18	4	81.8%	2.56	2	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • COL at home vs CGY: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	1	0.80
1	CGY	12	0	0.70
2	COL	14	0	1.06
2	CGY	23	0	1.09
3	COL	6	1	0.70
3	CGY	9	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3