Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 54.3%

DAL: 45.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.15

DAL: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

L. Brossoit

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	45	41	4	91.1%	6.71	7	2.71
DAL	Jake Oettinger	45	43	2	95.6%	4.59	1	2.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs DAL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	1.59
1	DAL	8	0	0.81
2	VGK	11	0	0.68
2	DAL	28	4	2.93
3	VGK	21	1	1.55
3	DAL	15	0	0.81
4	VGK	7	0	0.63
4	DAL	3	1	0.38
5	VGK	2	0	0.15
5	DAL	2	2	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8