New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-02-26 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 0 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 53.2%

NYI: 46.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.54

NYI: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

WPG

D. Rittich

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	D. Rittich	24	20	4	83.3%	2.17	2	-1.83
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	23	23	0	100.0%	2.81	1	2.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • WPG at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	4	0	0.09
1	NYI	15	1	0.82
2	WPG	25	1	1.65
2	NYI	12	0	0.57
3	WPG	15	0	1.08
3	NYI	7	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 0 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0