Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-02-26 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PIT: 53.6%

TBL: 46.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.91

TBL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 55%

PIT

C. DeSmith

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	29	26	3	89.7%	3.16	1	0.16
TBL	B. Elliott	36	29	7	80.6%	3.30	2	-3.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs TBL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	1	1.25
1	TBL	15	0	1.19
2	PIT	20	1	1.58
2	TBL	13	1	1.01
3	PIT	9	0	0.47
3	TBL	17	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2