Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-02-26 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

SEA: 41.4%

TOR: 58.6%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.84

TOR: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	33	28	5	84.8%	3.69	5	-1.31
TOR	I. Samsonov	27	26	1	96.3%	2.80	1	1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SEA at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	SEA 5 - 2 TOR	SEA	SEA
2025-10-18	TOR 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	SEA
2025-02-06	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-10-31	TOR 4 - 1 SEA	TOR	TOR
2024-01-21	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	11	0	0.70
1	TOR	26	5	2.52
2	SEA	24	1	1.32
2	TOR	8	0	0.57
3	SEA	8	0	0.77
3	TOR	10	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2