Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-02-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 49.9%

VAN: 50.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.94

VAN: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	16	5	76.2%	2.51	1	-2.49
VAN	Thatcher Demko	38	34	4	89.5%	4.65	1	0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	0	1.39
1	VAN	16	1	1.19
2	DAL	27	1	2.36
2	VAN	5	0	0.57
3	DAL	14	0	0.90
3	VAN	11	0	0.63
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	VAN	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1