Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2023-02-28 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NSH: 50.2%

PIT: 49.8%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.21

PIT: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	34	31	3	91.2%	3.78	1	0.78
PIT	Tristan Jarry	25	24	1	96.0%	2.46	0	1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NSH at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-16	PIT 4 - 0 NSH	PIT	PIT
2025-11-14	NSH 2 - 1 PIT	NSH	NSH
2025-02-01	PIT 3 - 0 NSH	PIT	PIT
2024-12-19	NSH 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	NSH
2024-04-15	PIT 4 - 2 NSH	PIT	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	22	0	1.27
1	PIT	15	0	0.80
2	NSH	8	0	0.48
2	PIT	26	0	1.74
3	NSH	6	0	0.71
3	PIT	10	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9