Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-02-28 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 56.7%

MTL: 43.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.35

MTL: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	32	29	3	90.6%	3.12	1	0.12
MTL	J. Allen	39	38	1	97.4%	3.54	1	2.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	17	1	1.33
1	MTL	20	0	1.01
2	SJS	20	0	1.14
2	MTL	10	0	0.61
3	SJS	15	0	1.07
3	MTL	11	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8