New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-01 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 New York Rangers (OT)

Win Probability

PHI: 44.6%

NYR: 55.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.95

NYR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

C. Hart

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	25	22	3	88.0%	2.57	1	-0.43
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	28	26	2	92.9%	2.35	4	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	1	0.54
1	NYR	10	0	0.61
2	PHI	18	3	1.56
2	NYR	12	0	0.91
3	PHI	10	0	0.25
3	NYR	12	1	0.98
4	PHI	0	0	0.00
4	NYR	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2