New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-03-01 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 7 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 53.6%

NJD: 46.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.03

NJD: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Justus Annunen	29	22	7	75.9%	3.49	5	-3.51
NJD	V. Vanecek	31	26	5	83.9%	2.39	1	-2.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	COL 8 - 4 NJD	COL	COL
2025-10-26	NJD 4 - 3 COL	NJD	COL
2025-02-26	COL 5 - 1 NJD	COL	COL
2024-12-08	NJD 0 - 4 COL	COL	NJD
2024-02-06	NJD 5 - 3 COL	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	0	0.35
1	NJD	15	2	1.09
2	COL	14	0	1.04
2	NJD	15	1	1.17
3	COL	16	1	1.00
3	NJD	10	2	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 7 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1