Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-03-01 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Washington Capitals (OT)

Win Probability

ANA: 37.8%

WSH: 62.2%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.52

WSH: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	39	36	3	92.3%	2.51	1	-0.49
WSH	D. Kuemper	23	21	2	91.3%	2.13	1	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • ANA at home vs WSH: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	WSH 7 - 4 ANA	WSH	WSH
2025-12-05	ANA 4 - 3 WSH	ANA	WSH
2025-03-11	ANA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-01-14	WSH 3 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH
2024-01-16	WSH 2 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	11	0	0.73
1	WSH	15	0	0.46
2	ANA	11	1	0.38
2	WSH	23	0	1.09
3	ANA	17	0	1.02
3	WSH	10	1	0.85
4	ANA	0	0	0.00
4	WSH	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.5 - 3.0