Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-03-02 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 7 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

BOS: 54.7%

BUF: 45.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

BUF: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 56%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	27	26	1	96.3%	2.19	0	1.19
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	42	35	7	83.3%	6.03	5	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs BUF: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	2	1.08
1	BUF	10	0	0.77
2	BOS	21	0	2.12
2	BUF	15	0	0.64
3	BOS	16	3	2.83
3	BUF	14	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 7 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0