Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-03-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 52.4%

OTT: 47.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.54

OTT: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

J. Halak

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	J. Halak	34	29	5	85.3%	3.88	6	-1.12
OTT	C. Talbot	32	29	3	90.6%	3.73	1	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs OTT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	16	0	0.79
1	OTT	10	1	0.67
2	NYR	19	1	2.00
2	OTT	20	1	1.09
3	NYR	12	0	0.94
3	OTT	15	4	2.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8