New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-03-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils (SO)

Win Probability

VGK: 52.3%

NJD: 47.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.90

NJD: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	54	51	3	94.4%	5.06	2	2.06
NJD	A. Schmid	31	27	4	87.1%	3.89	1	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.37
1	NJD	22	1	1.51
2	VGK	19	0	1.41
2	NJD	11	0	0.72
3	VGK	14	0	0.99
3	NJD	23	1	1.43
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
4	NJD	11	0	1.13
5	VGK	4	1	1.12
5	NJD	4	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1