Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 65.8%

PHI: 34.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.82

PHI: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

BUF

C. Anderson

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	38	34	4	89.5%	3.29	0	-0.71
PHI	Samuel Ersson	28	28	0	100.0%	2.61	1	2.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	7	0	0.58
1	PHI	21	0	1.59
2	BUF	19	0	0.97
2	PHI	18	0	0.90
3	BUF	14	1	1.06
3	PHI	12	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1