New York Rangers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 2 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 49.3%

NYR: 50.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

NYR: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

L. Ullmark

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	26	24	2	92.3%	1.47	0	-0.53
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	20	4	83.3%	2.56	1	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • BOS at home vs NYR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	BOS 3 - 0 NYR	BOS	NYR
2026-01-26	NYR 4 - 3 BOS	NYR	BOS
2026-01-10	BOS 10 - 2 NYR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-28	BOS 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-05	NYR 3 - 2 BOS	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	1	0.86
1	NYR	12	0	0.35
2	BOS	12	0	0.84
2	NYR	19	0	1.00
3	BOS	15	0	0.87
3	NYR	4	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1