Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

FLA: 51.1%

PIT: 48.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.49

PIT: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	31	1	96.9%	2.24	0	1.24
PIT	C. DeSmith	42	38	4	90.5%	4.01	2	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs PIT: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	14	0	0.86
1	PIT	8	0	0.32
2	FLA	23	2	2.13
2	PIT	18	0	0.90
3	FLA	17	0	1.02
3	PIT	15	0	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2