Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

OTT: 60.5%

CBJ: 39.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.37

CBJ: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

C. Talbot

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	21	19	2	90.5%	1.47	0	-0.53
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	39	34	5	87.2%	3.64	3	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs CBJ: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	CBJ 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-29	OTT 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	OTT
2025-12-11	CBJ 3 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-08	CBJ 5 - 2 OTT	CBJ	OTT
2025-04-06	OTT 4 - 0 CBJ	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	2	1.32
1	CBJ	3	0	0.10
2	OTT	21	0	1.35
2	CBJ	10	0	0.59
3	OTT	14	1	0.97
3	CBJ	13	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8