Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

WPG: 53.3%

EDM: 46.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.07

EDM: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	30	5	85.7%	2.54	0	-2.46
EDM	Jack Campbell	39	32	7	82.1%	3.67	2	-3.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • WPG at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	WPG 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-29	WPG 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-06	EDM 6 - 2 WPG	EDM	EDM
2025-04-13	WPG 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-20	EDM 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.80
1	EDM	13	0	0.76
2	WPG	27	1	1.84
2	EDM	12	0	0.79
3	WPG	10	1	1.03
3	EDM	17	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3